New Idaho Dispatch/Zoldak Research Poll on Governor, Lt. Governor, and AG Race in Republican Primary

Idaho Dispatch has had its second poll commissioned for the governor’s race, lieutenant governor’s race, and the attorney general’s race.

Once again, Idaho Dispatch has asked that Zoldak Research conduct the poll. While two of the races were done previously in December of last year, we asked that the attorney general’s race be added to this poll.

The goal of the poll was to give Idaho voters a possible look at the status of these three races with less than one month to go before the May 17 primary.

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Here is Idaho Dispatch’s Press Release explaining the results and how they compare, at least for the governor and lieutenant governor, to the previous poll conducted late last year.

Note: Any media requests about the poll can be sent to info@IdahoDispatch.com. If any media outlet wishes to share the poll, Idaho Dispatch is requesting that proper credit be given to both Zoldak Research and Idaho Dispatch.

Incumbent Little continues to Lead in Republican Primary for Idaho Governor Despite Undecided Voters’ Shift Towards Challengers

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Attorney General Race Competitive

Boise, Idaho – With less than one month to go until the May 17^th Republican primary for Idaho governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, all eyes are on the candidates as they make their final push. A new Idaho Dispatch poll shows a tight race in the attorney general race and a tightening contest in the lieutenant governor race. Meanwhile, incumbent Brad Little continues to hold a considerable lead against the rest of the field. Idaho Dispatch/Zoldak Research fielded this latest poll between April 9 and 12, 2022 amongst 549 likely Republican Primary voters statewide. This is the second statewide poll fielded by Idaho Dispatch with the first poll conducted in December 2021.

Idaho Governor

Given a sample ballot with Brad Little, Janice McGeachin, Ashley Jackson, Ed Humphreys, Steve Bradshaw, Lisa Marie, and Cody Usabel, incumbent Little receives 60% of votes while second place candidate, McGeachin, 29%. Notably, Little has not increased the size of his share of the total vote since the Idaho Dispatch’s December 2021 poll, where he stood at 59%. On the other hand, McGeachin has gained +11% since December, when she received 18% support in our poll.

The other candidates continue to poll much farther behind, with Humphreys at 6.2% (a jump of +3.8% from December), Bradshaw at 2.7% (up +1.8% from 0.9%), newcomer Ashley Jackson at 1.1% and the rest of the field at <1%.

A few months has made a vast difference in the name recognition factor in the governor’s race for challengers. Notably, McGeachin has reduced her unknowns from 57% to 7% and is now even in her net favorability rating. Humphries has gained +6% net favorability since December and reduced his unknowns by -11%. (Net favorability is calculated by subtracting unfavorable ratings from favorable ratings.) Incumbent Little has lost -12% in net favorability.

 

CANDIDATE	NET FAVORABILITY	FAVORABLE	NEUTRAL	UNFAVORABLE	NEVER HEARD OF
Little (April 2022)	+42%	67%	8%	25%	0%
Little (December 2022)	+50%	69%	12%	10%	<1%
McGeachin (April 2022)	0%	37%	19%	37%	7%
McGeachin (December 2022)	-11%	4%	30%	9%	57%
Humphreys (April 2022)	+2%	15%	40%	13%	33%
Humphreys (December 2022)	-4%	8%	36%	12%	44%

In a head-to-head contest against McGeachin, current governor Little is ahead 62% to 33% against field leader McGeachin, with 6% undecided. In December, Little was ahead 64% to 24% with 12% undecided. In other words, the undecideds seem to have gone entirely into McGeachin’s camp.

In a head-to-head contest with Humphreys, Little is ahead 62% to 19%, with 19% undecided. In December, this race was at 65% to 11%, with 24% undecided. We see the same trend here where the challenger seems to gain ground while the incumbent holds steady.

Idaho Lieutenant Governor

Moving on to the lieutenant governor’s race, we now see a much narrower race with Scott Bedke up by only 6.5% over Priscilla Giddings at 32% to 25%. Newcomer Daniel Gasiorowski registers a modest 4%. A large swath is still undecided, however, at nearly 40%. In December, 50% of voters were undecided, and Bedke was leading Giddings by +22%.

Idaho Attorney General

In the Attorney General race, Raúl Labrador is leading Lawrence Wasden 36% to 33%, with 27% still undecided. Labrador’s lead is just within the margin of error.

Right Track / Wrong Track

From December to April, the number of Republican Primary voters who believe the state is going in the right direction dropped from 56% to 50% (-6%) and the voters who believe the state is going in the wrong direction increased from 30% to 36% (+6%). 14% in both polls responded that they did not know whether the state was going in the right or wrong direction. When looking at the crosstabs of those who believe the state is on the “right track” versus the “wrong track,” it is clear that this greatly impacts candidate choice. In all three top races, the lead shifts between voters from the right track and wrong track camps.

 

OFFICE	ALL RESPONDENTS	RIGHT TRACK	WRONG TRACK	LEAD CHANGE? (RIGHT VS. WRONG TRACK)	NET CHANGE (RIGHT VS. WRONG TRACK)
Governor (April 2022)	Little 60% McGeachin 29% Humphreys 6%	Little 70% McGeachin 16% Humphreys 2%	Little 38% McGeachin 46% Humphreys 9%	YES	Little -32% McGeachin +30% Humphreys +7%
Lt. Governor (April 2022)	Bedke 32% Giddings 25% Gasiorowski 4%	Bedke 37% Giddings 18% Gasiorowski 4%	Bedke 29% Giddings 37% Gasiorowski 6%	YES	Bedke -8% Giddings +19% Gasiorowski +2%
Attorney General (April 2022)	Wasden 32% Labrador 36% Macomber 4%	Wasden 37% Labrador 33% Macomber 2%	Wasden 27% Labrador 43% Macomber 8%	YES	Wasden -10% Labrador +10% Macomber +6%

For full the results, visit: https://idahodispatch.com/2022poll

Methodology: A landline and mobile survey of registered voters who answered that they were somewhat to very likely to vote in the upcoming Idaho Republican primary election for governor, fielded between April 9 and 12, 2022. The sample size was 549. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

For interviews, media kit, or additional graphics contact: Greg Pruett, Editor, Idaho Dispatch, info@idahodispatch.com

Poll conducted by:

Web: https://www.zoldakresearch.com/

Email: media@zoldakresearch.com

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In the Zoldak Research/Idaho Dispatch poll, 12 individuals of the 549 identified as Democrats. Idaho Dispatch asked that they be left in the poll because Democrats do vote in the Republican Primary by registering as Republicans. Additionally, Idaho has a high percentage of Independents who also affiliate with the Republican Party for the purpose of voting in the primary election.

As a reminder, the purpose of the polling is to give Idaho voters a possible snapshot in time of what could be the results of the election if they were held at the time the poll was conducted.

With about one month remaining in the election, a lot can happen. It should be noted that the ballots will all be the same, and that even if a candidate “drops out” of the race, their name will remain.

You can learn more about the candidates and see which ones have sat down with Idaho Dispatch to do an interview by going to the link here.

Below is the polling information as it was posted on January 2nd, 2022 regarding the December 2021 poll.

Idaho Dispatch had a scientific poll conducted to help Idahoans gauge how the Republican Primary Governor’s race and Lt. Governor’s race might be going.

The company that conducted the poll is Zoldak Research out of Washington D.C. Zoldak Research has been conducting polling for over 15 years.

Idaho Dispatch did not conduct this poll in any way other than the approval of the questions. The goal for Idaho Dispatch when approving the questions was to determine which candidates were leading in the race at the time the poll was conducted. Additionally, Idaho Dispatch wanted to be able to show Idahoans how gubernatorial candidates fared in head-to-head matchups against incumbent Brad Little should he choose to run again.

You can learn more about Zoldak Research on their website by clicking the link here.

Idaho Dispatch has broken down the results of the polling by race in two separate articles.

You can click on the link here for more details on the other information about the Governor’s race.

You can click on the link here for more details on the poll and other information about the Lt. Governor’s race.

The full Press Release by Zoldak Research/Idaho Dispatch can be seen below.

Note: Any media requests about the poll can be sent to info@IdahoDispatch.com. If any media outlet wishes to share the poll, Idaho Dispatch is requesting that proper credit be given to both Zoldak Research and Idaho Dispatch.

Incumbent Little holds sizable lead in Republican primary
for Idaho Governor

Open Lieutenant Governor race has potential to be competitive

January 2, 2022

Boise, Idaho – With less than 6 months to go until the May Republican primary for Idaho governor and lieutenant governor, incumbent Brad Little holds a sizable lead against the possible field according to a poll released by Idaho Dispatch. Idaho Dispatch/Zoldak Research fielded a poll between December 20 and 22, 2021 amongst 575 likely Republican voters statewide.

Given a sample ballot with Brad Little, Janice McGeachin, Ammon Bundy, Ed Humphreys, Steve Bradhaw and Cody Usabel, incumbent Little receives 59% of votes while Trump endorsed candidate, McGeachin, receives the next highest number of votes at 18%. The other candidates polled much farther behind, with Bundy at 5%, Humphreys at 1%, and both Bradshaw and Usabel polling at below 1%.

In head-to-head contests against the current governor, McGeachin outperforms the field against Little, but still faces a huge gap at 64% for Little to 24% for McGeachin with only 12% undecided. Little has an even bigger lead against the remaining field at +55% against Bundy and +54% against Humphreys and Bradshaw.

In the lieutenant governor’s race, half of voters are still undecided. Scott Bedke leads Priscilla Giddings by +22% amongst those registering a choice.

Name recognition is a major factor in the governor’s race, with at least two out of five voters claiming to have never heard of either Humphreys (44%), Bradshaw (47%), or Usabel (57%). Net favorability ratings also favor Little, as shown below. (Net favorability is calculated by subtracting unfavorable ratings from favorable ratings.)

Little                                   +50% (69% favorable, 12% neutral, 19% unfavorable, <1% never heard of)

Bradshaw                         -1% (9% favorable, 35% neutral, 10% unfavorable, 47% never heard of)

Humphreys                      -4% (8% favorable, 36% neutral, 12% unfavorable, 44% never heard of)

Usabel                                -5% (4% favorable, 30% neutral, 9% unfavorable, 57% never heard of)

McGeachin                       -11% (29% favorable, 20% neutral, 40% unfavorable, 10% never heard of)

Bundy                                 -36% (15% favorable, 22% neutral, 51% unfavorable, 12% never heard of)

The poll, conducted by Zoldak Research for Idaho Dispatch, sampled 575 likely Idaho voters in late December via landline and mobile phones. For full the results, visit: https://idahodispatch.com/2022poll

Methodology: A landline and mobile survey of registered voters who answered that they were somewhat to very likely to vote in the upcoming Idaho Republican primary election for governor, fielded between December 20 and 22, 2021. The sample size was 575 with 430 responses recorded via IVR to landline phone and 145 responses recorded via online to mobile methods. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

For interviews, media kit, or additional graphics contact: Greg Pruett, Editor, Idaho Dispatch, info@idahodispatch.com

Poll conducted by:

Web: https://www.zoldakresearch.com/

Twitter: @zoldakresearch

Email: media@zoldakresearch.com

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