Zoldak/ Idaho Dispatch Poll: Prop 1 Down 5.8% with Large Shifts Possible
By Greg Pruett • October 10, 2024A new poll released Thursday by Zoldak Research and the Idaho Dispatch reveals opposition to Proposition 1 holds an edge, but the final outcome could shift greatly depending on the level of familiarity with the measure.
The ballot initiative would enact a top-four primary system and implement ranked choice voting for general elections.
The poll of 400 likely Idaho voters, conducted by Zoldak Research between October 2 and 6, shows 45.3% of those surveyed oppose Proposition 1, while 39.5% support the initiative. Additionally, 15.2% of those surveyed remain undecided. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.
The survey also revealed differing levels of popularity among the initiatives’ two pieces.
The top four primary, complete with a new system that would send the top four vote-earners to the general election, was supported by 46.7% of survey respondents, with 41.3% of those surveyed opposed. Another 12% were undecided on the top four primary portion.
The other piece, ranked choice voting, proved to be less popular with respondents. Only 38.2% of those surveyed support that piece, with 47.1% opposed. The remaining 14.7% remain undecided.
The survey also showed a large partisan split on the initiative. 74.4% of Democrats said they support Proposition 1, with 18.8% opposed. Another 6.8% of Democrats were undecided.
Of Republicans, 57.7% opposed the initiative, with 28.4% in support. Another 13.9% remain undecided just weeks before Election Day.
Among independent voters, 50.6% support the proposition, while 29.1% oppose it. Another 20.3% haven’t decided on the measure.
Sue Zoldak of Zoldak research said that Democrats were far more familiar with the initiative compared to their Republican counterparts. Zoldak told Idaho Dispatch that the race could shift dramatically as voters become more familiar with Prop 1. Her analysis indicated that as Republicans became more familiar with the measure they were more likely to oppose it by approximately 10%, while Democrat and independents who became more familiar were more likely to support Prop 1 by approximately 10%.
As opposing sides work to shore up votes for their side, voters are largely learning about Prop 1 on social media, local news, and friends, family and colleagues to familiarize themselves with the initiative’s language and potential effects.
The survey also asked voters their preference in the hotly contested presidential election. Unsurprisingly, 60.9% of those surveyed plan to vote for former President Donald Trump, while 31.3% plan to support Vice President Kamala Harris. Another 4.1% are undecided, while 3.7% support a third party candidate or plan to write in an alternative.
Sue Zoldak, of Zoldak Research, told Idaho Dispatch in their takeaways from the polling, in part,
“The contest is tight, with NO votes slightly ahead. This is mainly attributed to the partisan makeup of the Idaho population. If turnout matches the general election in 2020, we will see 61% of voters from the Republican Party, 12 to 13% of voters from the Democratic Party, and 25% unaffiliated voters. Republican voters are overwhelmingly against Prop.1.”
Idaho Dispatch will be contacting individuals and organizations on all sides of the issue for a future article.
You can watch our interview with Zoldak below.
Click on an image below to enlarge it.
Tags: Democrat, Independent, Prop 1, Proposition 1, Ranked Choice Voting, RCV News, Republican, Sue Zoldak, Top Four Primary, Zoldak Research
This Poll sample of 400 possible voters on Prop 1 is too Small to make any Conclusions. According to the ID SOS office their is as of 10-24, 1,024,931 registered Voters in Idaho. This Sample is only .3835 % which is not Large enough to make any intelligent Conclusions about the success or failure of Prop 1.
Mr. Stevenson,
This is how polling is done all over the country. To get a sample of 10% of the entire voting population would require 10’s of millions of dollars and the results would be the same. This is how polling has developed over the decades. They realized that once a sample size got big enough, they don’t have to go any bigger because there is minimal change, if any. Thanks for the input! – Greg Pruett, Publisher and CEO
Yep. Truth.
You are wrong if the proper demographic makeup is adhered to when folks are selected for response. For instance, only a certain percentage might be over age 65, another an independent voter age 30-45, and yet another never voted before. A strict sampling of the demographics chosen can indeed yield the results being claimed.
Correct. When we had Zoldak Research conduct the polling for us, we asked that the poll be weighted according to actual turnout in the last presidential election.
So, it was weighted for party affiliation, age, etc.
I would have loved a little bit bigger of a sample size but this is actually a decent size compared to many.
This one does have the potential to shift because of its complexity and the change expected as people become more familiar.
Yet a 1000 people or less are surveyed for National polls?
Yep. Truth.
Thank you, Idaho Dispatch, for trying to educate people about Prop1. It’s obvious why Democrats love it — it’s the only way they can win in a (once) conservative state. The Republicans and “Independents,” however, are concerning.
In addition to talking with others, emailing, and writing on Substack, we’re making personal calls to Registered Republican voters. Some feedback makes me think they are Democrats, falling for lies, and/or sorely uneducated. I hope they reconsider!
I wrote the following to our local Republican Party chair: “Some are falling for the Prop 1 lies, going for the simple explanations of its supporters and mainstream media. (I see very little critical thinking happening in America these days.)”
I posted the following opinion about polls before, but it bears repeating…
___
I truly wish you would NOT release this Prop1 poll until AFTER Election Day and all votes are counted. THEN compare the results.
I believe polls influence voting behavior in several ways, including:
-> Voters who see “their side” winning might not show up, thinking they do not need to. This could cause the results to “flip” due to apathy.
-> Voters who see “their side” losing might show up in droves, thinking they most vote harder. This could cause the results to “flip” due to enthusiasm.
-> Thoughts (i.e. polls) are not votes, even if the poll is super scientific or well-funded. Only people’s actual votes matter, not people’s opinions about the issue before they vote.
-> Some people change their minds and their votes at the last minute.
-> Some people either refuse to take polls or they deliberately skew them.
-> Polls can influence people’s natural “herd mentality” such that they might not think critically and just succumb to peer pressure of not wanting to be “wrong.” (People tend to forget that votes are secret, that somehow people will “find out” how they voted.)
—-> I don’t want to be the outlier.
—-> I don’t want to go against “consensus.”
One famous psychological experiment (whose specific details escape me) showed how people could be convinced that one line was longer than another when it clearly was not — just because other people who were influenced to lie said it was longer.
So, please reconsider publishing this poll ahead of the vote — but absolutely continue publishing accurate information and well-formed opinions all the way to Election Day.
Indeed ,he dumbed down TV watchers obey their TVs.
The dumbed down Tv watchers keep reelecting the politicians that steal their income and tax them our of their homes . Why?
As usual, Republicans aren’t paying attention except for a few. Republican party, wake up. You’re doing the same thing with the presidential elections. You’ll be the first ones to complain if Kamala Harris wins or the rank choice voting becomes law. You are going to be very upset with a California government in Idaho. Here’s a clue, if the Democrats are voting for it in majority, vote against it. The Democrats are not Jack Kennedy‘s Democratic Party. They are a bunch of power, hungry money hungry people. Fred.
Survey is interesting, it actually shows what a Republican in name only is (RINO)! No Republican would want a Democrat or any other party or independent choosing their candidate for the general election. That makes no sense, Republican and Democrats or others should chose their own candidates! Shame on any Republican for voting for this out of state proposition to take over Idaho! We are really getting things screwed up in this country!
I’ve been studying and writing about Prop 1 and its fake primaries and RCV general election for months.
I called a true conservative Idaho voter today. He has been out of town fighting fires in Oregon for the past few months, so was out of touch on the issues. We had an excellent conversation.
He asked me to explain Prop 1 to him. I did my best to cover all the obvious downsides, but got completely tangled up while explaining the convoluted intricacy of the Ranked Choice Voting process. (After all, only a computer algorithm can execute that counting process, and I’m NOT a computer algorithm!)
After our discussion, the voter said he definitely did not want PROP1 to pass now that he understood how it cannot be understood. He will vote against it.
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